Anderson Silva vs. Demian Maia Pick:
For the sports betting lines public, there are some good underdog chances at decent underdog odds. Many online sportsbooks have Anderson Silva at –800 and Demian Maia at +550. Considered by many to be the best pound-for-pound MMA fighter in the world, Anderson Silva is the obvious favorite. Maia’s best chances are on the ground and he hopes to get Silva down there so he can start to work his world-class jiujitsu in hopes of getting the upset. Silva could end the fight early if Maia can’t get close enough to get the takedown, as Silva could simply destroy Maia as he tries to close the distance. Maia does stand a real chance though if he can get Silva on the mat. If you like the dogs and absolutely must bet on the title fight, then I’d go with a nominal wager on Maia at +550. Silva at -800 doesn’t provide any value.
Frankie Edgar vs. BJ Penn Pick:
I’m not so sure Frankie Edgar at +550 has the same chances against BJ Penn (-800) as Maia does against Silva. I’m skipping this one myself as far as the underdog wagering goes. Aside from that, I expect Edgar will put up a good fight as he is a good wrestler and a solid well-rounded fighter. Overall this should be a good match. I expect Penn will take it before the championship rounds.
UFC 112 Picks:
The other dog bet that I mentioned last week that was worth considering was Renzo Gracie over Matt Hughes. Gracie is at +325 to Hughes’ -450. There’s a lot of talk about this fight going the distance and Hughes pulling off the UD as Gracie will challenge him on the ground but Hughes will gain the victory by controlling from the top position. I agree with some of this except that I’m giving the nod to Gracie for the underdog victory. Hughes’ record and experience will keep him working for top control and possibly going for the submission or a TKO from punches from the top. This is where Gracie lives though, and I expect Gracie to be able to withstand Hughes’ efforts and sweep for position and work the submissions to ultimately win the match. Gracie is worth a shot here.
A solid lightweight bout on the main card will feature British fighter Terry Etim (-160) against the well-rounded Brazilian Rafael dos Anjos (+130). The bout finds excitement in that both fighters are looking for some recognition in order to move up in the lightweight division. Both fighters seem to excel on the ground with Etim possessing the ability to finish more fights there as opposed to controlling the fights from that position as dos Anjos does. I’d give the edge in stand up to Etim as well, but I expect most of the fight will take place on the mat with Etim gaining the victory.
The remaining fight on the main card for UFC: Invincible in Abu Dhabi is Kendall Groves against Mark Munoz. While I like Munoz and I think -160 for him as opposed to Groves at +130 is a fair line for this match up, I’m favoring Groves. While Munoz is a top-level wrestler, I expect Groves’ reach and jiujitsu will ultimately earn him the victory on Saturday night. I’m sticking by my pick from last week and restating that I like Groves.
My quick picks for the rest of the UFC 112: Invincible card on Saturday are Davis, Gunderson, Osipczak, Johnson, Veach and Madsen. The only thing I’ve got to say about those is that Madsen better pull it off.
Good luck with your MMA picks.
You can check all the updated MMA odds at Online Boxing
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