Chicago (3-1) and Green Bay (3-1) share a piece of the lead atop the NFC North division but anyone that watched the Bears give up nine QB sacks in the first-half alone vs. the Giants Sunday night is quick to dismiss any long-term success for Lovie Smith’s team.
The Packers on the other hand, who have averaged 9.5 straight-up wins per season over the past decade, seem like a legitimate shot to clear their 10 wins by Week 15. Green Bay finishes the season with back-to-back home games as well, and the current NFL odds on the Packers to win the division is -275.
The AFC picture gets a lot more clouded, where six teams have already won at least three games. Surprisingly, the team listed by oddsmakers as the favorite to win the Conference is not one of those six! Indianapolis (+350) is still being recognized as the top contender even though the Colts are 2-2 SU/ATS.
The highest payback for any of the three-win teams is Kansas City (+2000), who visit the Colts this weekend. Indianapolis is favored by bookmakers at -9 and is getting 66-percent public support through early betting.
TURN OVER A NEW LEAF
Monday Night Football games have not disappointed this season and two stats to keep in mind when handicapping this week’s contest between the Vikings and Jets (-4) involve a pair of top offensive players that were starting to gain a reputation for their generosity. Until now, that is:
- Known for his 20 interceptions last season, through four games, Jets QB Mark Sanchez is 60-for-103 (58.3%), and averaging 169.3 yards per game with eight TDs and zero INTs.
- Speaking of turnover-free football, Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson has had 83 touches in his first three games and has not fumbled once. This comes after two years where Peterson had 15 total fumbles (losing nine).
UH OH, NEW O-CO
The San Francisco 49ers fell to 0-4 SU Sunday in Atlanta, despite earning an ATS cover for bettors. Following the Niners’ loss in Kansas City, HC Mike Singletary sent O-Co Jimmy Raye packing and with Mike Johnson calling the plays, well, let’s just say things didn’t get any worse.
WR Michael Crabtree’s value has risen for Fantasy owners, Crabtree making five receptions for 58 yards Sunday, and perhaps with another week and home field the 49ers will be able to come out on the right side of a close game for once. Or maybe not...
When a football team makes a drastic move such as firing a key member its coaching personnel this early in the season it’s meant to send a message out to the rest of the organization. But when Kansas City, Buffalo and Tampa Bay committed the act last year in late-August/early September it created a negative ripple effect lasting for months.
Five weeks into the 2009 season those three teams and a combined record of 1-14 SU, and some would argue that other than the Chiefs, they are still no better off today. The O-Co carousel was pegged as the biggest problem for QB Smith and until we see something positive out of this team, bettors may want to exercise caution.
The Niners (-3.5) are hosting the Philadelphia Eagles for Week 5 on Sunday Night Football.
POSSESSION OUTCOME PROPS
Along with ‘first-half’ lines Sportsbetting.com has always offered a great assortment of props for every game on the Sunday card.
New this season is ‘Possession Outcome Props’ where you can bet on what either team in a contest will do with the football on their first possession of the game. Touchdown, field goal or punt are offered at different rates based on team tendencies and it’s a great way to get ahead in the game early.
Betting Tip: In 19 games under previous offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye, the 49ers never scored a touchdown on their first possession. Mike Johnson did it on his first crack.
You can check all the NFL odds and prop betting options.
Plus check out the FREE NFL Picks contest
Showing posts with label 2010 NFL Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2010 NFL Picks. Show all posts
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
NFL Week 2 Picks: Sunday Morning Snap Judgements
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Common sense says take the Ravens, but at a closer look this Bengals team has the Ravens number (2-0 against them last year), the Ravens are on a short week, back-to-back road games and the Bengals needs this one.
Pick: Bengals +3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers are only successful when they can run the ball. This week, they will run the ball and do it well against the feeble Bucs.
Pick: Carolina -3.5
Buffalo Bills @ Green Bay Packers
This looks to be the blowout of the week. The Bills will be in it for about a quarter or so but this is too tall an order for them to step into Lambeau and get the win.
Pick: Packers -13
Friday, June 25, 2010
2010 NFL Picks and Predictions: Detroit Lions Week 1 Pick
One of the NFL’s most maligned teams, the Lions haven’t really had anything to cheer about since, well, the last time they made the playoffs, which was in 1999 (sportsbooks had them as a 7-point dog in that Wild-Card game, which they lost 27-13 to the Washington Redskins).
Will the Lions be Kings of the Jungle again? Let’s say that’s highly unlikely this year and the current NFL Future odds posted at online sportsbooks are evidence of that.
They are longshots to take the NFC North division, currently listed at +1400, longer shots of course to win the NFC championship (+5000) and off the charts when it comes to the Super Bowl (+20,000).
Brian Taylor, sportsbook manager at SPORTSBETTING.com, said of the early betting volume on the NFC North, they actually do have some clients who are taking a chance on Detroit in 2010.
Of all the betting action on the future bet “To win the NFC” 9% of the money is on the Lions at +1400 (a $100 wager pays $1,400 if they win).
It might be a little optimistic and a year or two early, but remember the Dallas Cowboys were in rough shape before Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin came together to lead them. And it took Tom Brady supplanting Drew Bledsoe for the Patriots to really emerge as a consistent championship caliber team.
But do the Lions have a QB that can step forward and turn this franchise around? I think they do.
Matt Stafford had a very good rookie season…as good as Mark Sanchez, despite the numbers and Sanchez’s playoff performance.
In 10 starts in his rookie campaign, Stafford threw for 2,267 yards and 13 TDs but also was intercepted 20 times as well – not the prettiest of stats but then again, look at the team in front of him.
The Lions had the worst defense in the league, in terms of yards allowed, as opposing teams amassed 6,274 yards against Detroit’s defense.
To that end, the Lions selected DT Ndamukong Suh in the first-round of this year’s draft.
If the Detroit Lions are to really make a push for the postseason though, they are going to have to improve their record against divisional opponents.
The Lions have lost 15-consecutive games to fellow NFC North teams, 0-15 straight up (SU), and have gone 4-10-1 against the spread (ATS) at the same time.
They can start to turn the tide Week 1, when they’ll open the regular season in Chicago against the Bears. SPORTSBETTING.com has the lines up for Week 1 games and the Lions are currently listed as 7-point underdogs.
Looking at the numbers, Detroit is only 3-8 SU in their last 11 overall against the Bears and they aren’t much better against the spread at 4-7 ATS. In their last 20 when listed as underdogs of 8-points or less, they are only 4-16 SU and 5-15 ATS.
That said, I like the Lions plus the points in the opener.
I expect them to take a big step forward in 2010, winning six or seven games, maybe more.
Check out Detroit Lions 2010 NFL Week 1 Picks @ Football Betting
