Champions League Betting: Round 3 Picks

There are sixteen games being played this Tuesday and Wednesday from round three of the Champions League. Let’s look at three of those matches and see if we can find some value. 

 - The big game on Tuesday night sees two European giants clash at the Bernabeu as Real Madrid host AC Milan in a Group G battle. Real are now managed by former Inter Milan boss Jose Mourinho and under him they have conceded just three goals in nine games this season. They look an excellent defensive side and despite AC Milan climbing to second in Italy’s Serie A this weekend they have a poor road record so far this season, winning just one of their four away matches. As a result of this, we see this match going just one way and we’re backing a Real Madrid win, with sportsbook odds @ 1.45.

 - Another side with a great defensive record is Shakhtar Donetsk. They have conceded just two goals in their last seven matches in all competitions and they travel to London as they face Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium. Arsenal have looked impressive at home this season and have scored twenty goals in their four wins and a loss in front of their own fans. They have kept a clean sheet in just two of those five games and we’re expecting goals in this game, so we suggest putting your money on over 2.5 goals @ 1.72.

 - One side that isn’t having such a good season so far is Manchester United. They are yet to win away from home in the Premier League, let a two goal lead slip against West Brom at the weekend and talismanic striker Wayne Rooney has refused to sign a new contract with the club leading to suggestions that he will be sold in the January transfer window. 

They welcome Turkish side Bursaspor to Old Trafford on Wednesday and I think they will be highly focused on a win to try and quiet the noise form last week. Bursaspor are yet to score in the Champions League this season…Man U has to feel they are there for the taking. We feel this too and expect United to give themselves a massive boost of confidence by putting a few goals past the hapless Turks, so we’re going with +2.5 goals in the match @ 1.45 at the online sportsbook.

NFL Teams in the Quarter Pole

Chicago (3-1) and Green Bay (3-1) share a piece of the lead atop the NFC North division but anyone that watched the Bears give up nine QB sacks in the first-half alone vs. the Giants Sunday night is quick to dismiss any long-term success for Lovie Smith’s team.

The Packers on the other hand, who have averaged 9.5 straight-up wins per season over the past decade, seem like a legitimate shot to clear their 10 wins by Week 15. Green Bay finishes the season with back-to-back home games as well, and the current NFL odds on the Packers to win the division is -275.
The AFC picture gets a lot more clouded, where six teams have already won at least three games. Surprisingly, the team listed by oddsmakers as the favorite to win the Conference is not one of those six! Indianapolis (+350) is still being recognized as the top contender even though the Colts are 2-2 SU/ATS.

The highest payback for any of the three-win teams is Kansas City (+2000), who visit the Colts this weekend. Indianapolis is favored by bookmakers at -9 and is getting 66-percent public support through early betting.

TURN OVER A NEW LEAF
Monday Night Football games have not disappointed this season and two stats to keep in mind when handicapping this week’s contest between the Vikings and Jets (-4) involve a pair of top offensive players that were starting to gain a reputation for their generosity. Until now, that is:

- Known for his 20 interceptions last season, through four games, Jets QB Mark Sanchez is 60-for-103 (58.3%), and averaging 169.3 yards per game with eight TDs and zero INTs.

- Speaking of turnover-free football, Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson has had 83 touches in his first three games and has not fumbled once. This comes after two years where Peterson had 15 total fumbles (losing nine).

UH OH, NEW O-CO
The San Francisco 49ers fell to 0-4 SU Sunday in Atlanta, despite earning an ATS cover for bettors. Following the Niners’ loss in Kansas City, HC Mike Singletary sent O-Co Jimmy Raye packing and with Mike Johnson calling the plays, well, let’s just say things didn’t get any worse.

WR Michael Crabtree’s value has risen for Fantasy owners, Crabtree making five receptions for 58 yards Sunday, and perhaps with another week and home field the 49ers will be able to come out on the right side of a close game for once. Or maybe not...

When a football team makes a drastic move such as firing a key member its coaching personnel this early in the season it’s meant to send a message out to the rest of the organization. But when Kansas City, Buffalo and Tampa Bay committed the act last year in late-August/early September it created a negative ripple effect lasting for months.

Five weeks into the 2009 season those three teams and a combined record of 1-14 SU, and some would argue that other than the Chiefs, they are still no better off today. The O-Co carousel was pegged as the biggest problem for QB Smith and until we see something positive out of this team, bettors may want to exercise caution.

The Niners (-3.5) are hosting the Philadelphia Eagles for Week 5 on Sunday Night Football.

POSSESSION OUTCOME PROPS
Along with ‘first-half’ lines Sportsbetting.com has always offered a great assortment of props for every game on the Sunday card.

New this season is ‘Possession Outcome Props’ where you can bet on what either team in a contest will do with the football on their first possession of the game. Touchdown, field goal or punt are offered at different rates based on team tendencies and it’s a great way to get ahead in the game early.

Betting Tip: In 19 games under previous offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye, the 49ers never scored a touchdown on their first possession. Mike Johnson did it on his first crack.

You can check all the NFL odds and prop betting options.

Plus check out the FREE NFL Picks contest

Soccer Betting: English Premier League Picks

All the big sides are in action this weekend in the English Premier League and we will be looking at their matches and offering our insight on where the best value lies.

Arsenal vs. Chelsea

The biggest game of the weekend sees Chelsea entertain Arsenal at Stamford Bridge on Sunday. Both sides had impressive results in their midweek Champions League matches against Marseille and Partizan Belgrade respectively. Chelsea kept their eighth straight clean sheet at home in their Champions and Premier League games as they won 2-0, while Arsenal beat their Serbian opponents 3-1 away from home. Both sides will want to win the game, with Chelsea looking to extend their lead at the top of the table, while Arsenal will close to within a point of Chelsea with a win. Also Chelsea have won the last four matches against Arsenal, so Arsenal will want to prevent it getting to five in a row. The game could either way to be honest as both sides are so good this season, but we’re backing over 2.5 goals in the match. We see sportsbook with the line 1.77 on that one. Five of the last six games have had at least three goals in them and we foresee more goals this time around.

Play this one Over 2.5

Manchester United vs. Sunderland

On Saturday afternoon Sunderland host Manchester United in a game that both sides will feel that they can win. Sunderland have impressed this season, with Darren Bent in sparkling form and he has found the net on five occasions from their opening six fixtures. Despite winning both away games in the Carling Cup and Champions League, United are yet to win away from home in the Premier League having drawn all three matches so far, but will they carry their away form with them after beating Valencia in midweek? This is another game that could easily go either way, so we’re leaning towards goals in this match too and we’re putting our money on over 2.5 goals @ 1.87 (line is from Sportsbetting.com).

Play this one Over 2,5

Newcastle United vs. Man City

The final game we’re looking at sees big spending Manchester City host Newcastle United at Eastlands at Sunday lunchtime. City’s last league game saw them defeat reigning champions and current league leaders Chelsea through a Carlos Tevez goal, now can they beat newly promoted Newcastle? Newcastle have an up and down season with some impressive wins and then some mystifying losses. Do they have the quality to beat Manchester City? Probably not and we’re on the home win wagon here, and we’re backing Manchester City to win @ 1.31.

We’re backing Man City

Check all the EPL Odds

Have a great weekend

Hot Lines for Week 4

Donovan McNabb’s much anticipated return to Philadelphia this week has instantly made the Redskins-Eagles one of the more popular games for early-week bettors.

Online sportsbook opened the line for this contest at Eagles -6.5, but the bait for Redskins backers, including those who were paying the extra juice to ‘buy the hook’ up to seven was too tempting. Early public money was coming in at 65-percent according to odds trackers but since the line dropped to -6 the action has started to even out.

Washington has a 7-3-1 record against the spread (ATS) in its last 11 meetings with the Philadelphia.

PUBLIC FAVORITES

Houston (90-percent), San Diego (86-percent) and New Orleans (82-percent) are three of the most popular bets on the board this week but huge public favorites have not proven to be a wise investment through the first three weeks of the season.

Huge fan favorite teams attracting the most money at the ticket windows are hitting at a dismal 29-percent (4-10 ATS).

While the readings from early in the week are likely to change since the majority of bettors don’t start buying until the weekend, it’s a worthwhile practice finding a consistent source of information that lets you watch where the money is going through the week.

WEARY TRAVELLERS

Seattle (-1), Denver and San Francisco will all be travelling decent distances this weekend for road games at St. Louis, Tennessee (-6.5) and Atlanta (-7) respectively.

While the Broncos will only wind their watches one hour to the Central time zone and the Seahawks only click two zones ahead, San Francisco is falling into the classic ‘Early body clock’ trap synonymous with West Coast teams playing in the Eastern time zone.

The 49ers were 0-5 straight-up in 2009 the first five times they traveled to play Eastern/Central time zone opponents, finally breaking the slump in Week 17 at St. Louis. San Francisco is also just 1-8 SU in their past nine road games overall and if last week’s game in Kansas City was any indicator, 2010 looks like another good spot to fade these weary travellers.

Another thing to keep in mind is that when getting +7 points or more, the 49ers were 2-1 ATS in 2009.

There’s a look at a few games this weekend. Best of luck with your bets.

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Thursday Night Football Betting: NFL Bye Weeks Begin

Right from the first Thursday night game of the NFL season the weekly football betting routine can fly by at a furious pace. NFL lines for the following week’s games are often posted by online sportsbook before we have even heard the final whistle on Sunday Night Football but as fans and bettors, we wouldn’t have it any other way.

It’s hard to believe three weeks have already passed and as we work through the Week 4 card, it’s time to start focusing a little closer on matchups and situational football handicapping.

The bye weeks are here, starting with the Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It means a little less action from a viewing standpoint but the smaller card also frees up more time to handicap the other 14 games on the card.

LONG DIVISION

In Week 4, even with the bye weeks coming into effect, there are more divisional games scheduled than in any other week through the first month. Week 1 had seven, Week 2 there was only three and in Week 3 we saw six divisional matchups.

The road team will be favored in at least four of the nine divisional contests, possibly five, depending which way the line moves in New England at Miami.

There is a trend developing this season that involves divisional road favorites and it’s certainly worth noting for Over/Under bettors.

- When favored by -3 points or more, divisional road favs this year have played 0 overs, 4 unders and 1 push.

Cincinnati (-3) at Cleveland (Total of 37), NY Jets (-5) at Buffalo (Total of 37) and Indianapolis (-7.5) at Jacksonville (Total of 46) all fit the criteria and the "Under" in these three matchups is a play for you to consider.

PICK A SPOT

When looking at these divisional rivalries it is impossible to ignore certain trends that have developed between some of the teams. Two guaranteed meetings per season boosts the credibility of a betting trend because it involves more of the same players and coaches.

Just from the above matchups we can see that the underdog in the Bengals-Browns series is 6-0 ATS since 2007.

We also noticed that the road team in the Colts-Jaguars series is 6-0 ATS the past three seasons.

The road teams is 5-0 ATS in the past five tilts between the Jets and Bills but one of the more glaring trends shows that Buffalo has been a terrible play as a home underdog, going 1-8 ATS the past nine times.

Road favorites were 4-4 ATS in Week 3 but it doesn’t completely make up for their 0-4-1 ATS mark in Week 2. In these three divisional matchups we’ve listed, the road team and the "Under" look like the solid picks but before you circle any of them as a best bet, make sure to do thorough research into the local papers and team websites for injury information.

Think of it this way – with only 14 games on the card you should have some extra time!

Free Ryder Cup Contest

Aside from football, there is also a great golf event this weekend.

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