Thursday, November 26, 2009

Thanksgiving Day NFL Previews: NFL 2009 Previews & Picks

The Annual Turkey Day trio of NFL games that kicks off the Week 12 card is setup to help the sports betting community ease into the action, starting with a NFC North divisional game between the Green Bay Packers (6-4) and Detroit Lions (2-8). Online sportsbook have listed the Packers (-10.5) as a double-digit favorite and the Over/Under is set at 47.

If it’s beginning to feel like a tradition for Thanksgiving’s first game of the day to seem a little meaningless, as far as playing a part in shaping the playoff picture, it’s because the Lions have only come into this game with a winning record once in the past nine years.

Detroit did excite fans at Ford Field last Sunday with a 38-37 come from behind victory against the Cleveland Browns but QB Matt Stafford was injured on the game’s final drive and has been all but ruled out of this contest vs. Green Bay. Lions head coach Jim Schwartz said Stafford is in incredible pain and that Daunte Culpepper is going to be the starter.

The Packers lead this series 87-64-7 all-time and even when provided with a generous line from oddsmakers the Lions are 0-4 ATS in 2009 against divisional opponents.

Oakland Raiders vs. Dallas Cowboys

Midday action pits the Oakland Raiders (3-7) against the Dallas Cowboys (7-3) and while this game is viewed by many as a token trip to Jerry Land for a Raiders team that has set records for futility, the underdog has been the one getting the Online betting action in this one so far. Online sportsbook SPORTSBETTING.com reported that over 60% of the volume at -14 was on the Raiders. Since the line move to -13.5, the wagering activity has balanced off on both teams.

Originally sets as a two-TD favorite, Dallas has been bought off the key number down to -13.5 points at sportsbooks. After a Week 2 loss to the New York Giants the Cowboys played three games on home turf, posting a perfect 3-0 ATS record. When the Washington Redskins paid a visit in Week 11 the betting trends were on the road team and the Skins nearly won the game straight-up.

Dallas does not seem content to rest on the laurels of its one-point victory and during its three-game win streak at home the Cowboys did cover the spread by an average of more than 11 points per game. Oakland has gained confidence under the leadership of newly named starting QB Bruce Gradkowski and is playing off a 20-17 upset win over Cincinnati.

It’s the third time the Raiders have surprised an opponent this year, getting a straight up win. However, it is worth noting that after their first two wins they have not performed well in their next start, going 0-2 straight and up and against the spread and it wasn’t even close, as the Raiders were beaten by 20 and 38 points.

NY Giants at Denver:

The New York Giants (6-4) are in Denver (6-4) for the nightcap and just four days after ending a losing streak that lasted 42 days, the G-Men are laying points on the road. Lines opened at Giants -5 but New York seems like the consensus best bet as they have been bet as high as -7 at several betting outlets.

New York has scored an average of 26.6 points per game this year compared to the Broncos average of just 17, but the Giants also allow more than five points per game more than Denver on the defensive side of the ball. - Betting Online

Favs and dogs have split the first two Thursday night matchups this season and both games have stayed under the posted total. That’s a sharp contrast to 2008 when Thursday night primetime games produced six overs to just one under. The total in Denver is 42.

Enjoy all the Thanksgiving Day NFL action.