Monday, November 29, 2010

NFL Week 12 Picks: Big Games for Week 12

NFL Week 12 Picks: It doesn’t matter if NFL players actually watch any of the action unfold during Thursday’s Thanksgiving triple-header; they know the results by Friday morning.

How it affects the players on Atlanta to see Drew Brees pass for more than 350 yards on the road against Dallas? Another mystery, but Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 285-plus in five of his past six outings so the Falcons defensive backs better be ready!

GREEN BAY AT ATLANTA

Line: Falcons -2
Over/Under: 47.5
The Packers sandwiched their bye week with impressive wins against Dallas and Minnesota, leaving a trail of coaching casualties in their wake. The Falcons have had a few extra days after beating Baltimore on Thursday (Week 11) and they’ll face a Packers team that’s allowed only one TD on 31 drives in their last three games.

Atlanta is 3-2 ATS at home this year and was 5-1 ATS when laying points in 2009. QB Ryan’s (18-1 SU) strong run of straight-up home wins gets a ton of publicity but it’s well deserved; the guy knows how to get the job done.

Online sportsbook opened the line for this game at Falcons -2 and public betting percentages show a 70-30 split of ATS betting action, Green Bay getting the majority.

The Falcons won their final four games of the season ATS last year and are 11-2 SU in their past 13 overall. In what could be a preview for the NFC Conference Final we like the betting value on the home favorite.
Pick: Take the Falcons

In another one of the more popular games for online betting this week, probably more because of the storylines leading up to it than then actually matchup itself, Donovan McNabb and Brett Favre square-off for the final time at FedEx Field.
   
MINNESOTA AT WASHINGTON
Line: Redskins -1.5
Over/Under: 43
After compiling a 40-37 straight-up record in five seasons with Minnesota, Brad Childress was fired this week after the Vikings were blown out by division rival Green Bay.

Leslie Frazier has become the second interim coach named in the past two weeks and Minnesota can only hope to enjoy the same success the Dallas Cowboys have enjoyed under interim coach Jason Garrett.

It was fairly obvious how big the rift between Childress-Favre had become and we know who will be calling the shots vs. Washington. Look for an up-tempo offense utilizing RB Peterson and all of the WRs to spread out the field.

On defense, the Vikings front seven will keep QB McNabb guessing. If the secondary can take something positive out of last week’s disaster they have a chance for redemption against the league’s 27th rated passing game (76.1).
Pick: Take the Vikings