Tuesday, December 7, 2010

NBA Betting: Tuesday NBA Picks

NBA Betting: Not one of the seven matchups Tuesday features two teams that each have a win-loss record above .500 but this Western Conference rivalry between the Suns and Trailblazers is a close as it gets.

Portland started last season at 12-8 before going on to win 50 games but the Trailblazers are 2-6-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. Sportsbook have the home side favored.

Phoenix (11-9) at Portland (9-11)
Line: Trailblazers -3
Over/Under: 204
Portland started the season 6-3 but fell into six-game spiral that sent their fans into a tizzy.

The Blazers led at half-time in three of the six losses and three were by four points or less, but was Sunday’s win against the Clippers a turning point or an aberration?

Strong play in the defensive zone will a key for Portland but the Suns (109.8 ppg) lead the league in scoring and for seven-straight games have notched 105-plus points per game. Look for the Trailblazers to fall behind in the second-half and for this game to finish with a margin of less than three.
Pick: Take the Suns

Washington (6-13) at L.A. Lakers (14-6)
Line: Lakers -13
Over/Under: 206.5
The Lakers won their first game in over a week Friday, beating Sacramento 113-80 SU/ATS. It was LA’s most convincing win of the season, covering the spread by more than 20 points, and after a three-day layoff the sports betting books are calling for more of the same.

The Wizards are a likely target, opening the season with a 0-10 SU record away from home, and looking back to last season when Washington was 1-6 SU through the first month away from home, the Lakers should be ready to pour it on thick.

Washington was beat up in Phoenix Sunday and the Wizards are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games that followed a loss of more than 10 points but in three games this season as an 11-point (or greater) underdog, Washington is 0-3 ATS.
Pick: Take the Lakers

Champions League Picks: Matchday Six

This midweek sees the final games from the group stage of the Champions League, who will reach the knockout stages? We’re looking at the biggest games.

Group A sees Tottenham Hotspur and Inter Milan locked at the top of the table with ten points from their opening five matches and both are playing away games this Tuesday, with Spurs at FC Twente and Inter facing Werder Bremen, with the aim of topping the group. Of the two sides, Spurs are in better form and are unbeaten in their last six matches, while Inter have lost three of their last five games. How will these games go? Let’s look at the matchups and the updated Champions League odds.

Spurs face a tough task to claim all three points against an FC Twente side that has lost just one of its last 22 games at home in the last year, however they have not won in this year’s Champions League at home and have drawn both games played. Spurs are patchy on the road and have lost four of their last seven away games, and they have drawn one and lost one away in the Champions League this season.

However, with winning the group at stake we expect them to win this match and we’re backing them to win the game. Sportsbook have the current odds @ 2.00.

Both Werder Bremen and Inter Milan are in poor form, with Werder having collected one win their last nine games and they have earned just two points from their five Champions League games so far. At home they have won three, drawn three and lost three in their last nine games, including losing 2-0 to FC Twente recently. Inter are just as poor and have lost three and drawn one of their last four away games.

We cannot see either side winning this one and we’re backing the draw @ 2.98.
In action on Wednesday are Chelsea, who travel to France to face Marseille. Chelsea have already topped the group but Marseille need a point to ensure their progress, but can they get it? Chelsea are in terrible form with the Premier League champions having collected just two wins from their last seven games and their away form has seen them lose two and draw one of their last three games. Marseille are without a win, and a goal, in two matches but have won five and drawn two of their last seven games at home. They know they must get something from this game as Spartak Moscow are likely to beat MSK Žilina and we feel that with Chelsea’s poor form they’ll take all three points.

Back Marseille to beat Chelsea @ 2.04.

Monday, December 6, 2010

Premier League Pick: Aston Villa v Liverpool

Aston Villa v Liverpool
The final game of matchday sixteen in the Premier League sees twelfth placed Liverpool take on sixteenth placed Aston Villa in what promises to be an intriguing match. Who do the bookies will walk away with the spoils? Bet365 make Liverpool the 1.57 favourites to collect all three points, with an Aston Villa win available at 6.50 and the draw can be backed at odds of 3.80. 

This season has not been a good season for Liverpool and with manager changes and the club being taken over, they have won just four of their opening fifteen games. However, they have collected a total of nineteen points in the league and thanks to the closeness of the league this season, a win in this match will send them rocketing up the table to seventh place. Their home form has been good recently and they have won all of their last three home games against Blackburn Rovers, Chelsea and West Ham. For this game they are missing both Steven Gerrard and Jamie Carragher through injury and Fernando Torres is still not hitting the heights that he can do when in form, so will they continue in their winning form? 

Aston Villa are very much out of form at the moment and they are without a win in four matches after drawing 2-2 with Manchester United and losing 2-0 to Blackburn and 4-2 to Arsenal in the league as well as being eliminated by their biggest rivals Birmingham City in the Carling Cup. They are showing some good possession football, keeping the ball well and making chances, but they are failing to convert those chances into enough goals to win matches. Their away league form has seen them lose five of seven games on the road, beating just Wolves and also collecting a point against Fulham. That draw with Fulham came three games ago and that is their only point in four away league matches since beating Wolves at the end of September. Can they take advantage of Liverpool’s injury worries to secure just second away win of the season? 

Head-to-head things do not look good for Villa as they have won just two of the twenty matches that these sides have played since 2000. Of the other eighteen games played in that time, Liverpool have won twelve and six have ended level. However, the last Villa win against Liverpool came at Anfield last season as the Midland side triumphed 3-1 and they will be looking for a repeat performance as their former Liverpool manager Gerard Houllier looks to make a triumphant return to Anfield. How will the game go though? 

With Liverpool missing Carragher in defence, we feel that they will be vulnerable to the speed of Aston Villa’s attacking players and with Paul Konchesky, especially, having a shocking season we can easily see Villa getting on the scoresheet. Liverpool also have to be backed to find the net at home with the trickery and skill of Torres, as well as the hard working Kuyt pushing forwards. We also feel that neither of these two sides has much, if any, advantage over each other and that they are likely to cancel each other out and we see a draw here, so these two bets are where we are putting our money this Monday night.

Check out the Picks Forum at Betrepublic.com for more Premier League and Champions League picks  
We Recommend:
·         Back Liverpool v Aston Villa to end as a draw @ 3.80.
     Back both sides to score in the match @ 1.91

NFL Pick: Monday Night Football – New York Jets at New England Patriots

Monday Night Football betting action for tonight’s contest have favored the Patriots by more than 60-percent throughout the week, but online sportsbook haven’t moved the line off 3.5. New England is 11-3 ATS in its past 14 games as a home favorite by 3.5-to-10 points but in the most recent; an ATS loss Week 11 vs. Indianapolis, the Patriots needed a Red Zone takeaway in the final minute just to avoid the straight-up loss. 

New York doubled up the Patriots 28-14 in Week 2, but it’s worth noting that in the past seven seasons, Bill Belichick’s squad holds a 12-4 advantage in 16 meetings, playoffs included. The Jets’ Mark Sanchez tossed three TD passes in the first meeting and for a while, it seemed the sophomore QB had curbed an interception tendency that tied him for second-most (20) in the league last season. 

Bad decisions in his past six games have added up to eight picks, however, and the improvements we’ve seen from this young New England secondary since Week 2 could pose a serious threat to the Jets passing game.

The Patriots are plus-11 in turnovers this season while the Jets have a rating of plus-7. New England has won the turnover battle in seven of its past nine games and the defensive minded head coach/D-Co Belichick has done an amazing job teaching his guys how to play at an elite level. 

The average age of New England’s defensive starters this season is 25.5 years – the youngest in Belichick’s 16 seasons of coaching. 


With Tom Brady as a leader, the defense will seldom be the big story in Foxboro. The Pats offense is one of only two teams (Chiefs) with fewer than 10 giveaways and rank at the top of the league for best turnover ratio.
This group has used original formations along with innovative playcalling to create chances for huge YAC-yardage. It’s going to be a much tougher challenge for a Jets defense that in Round 1, kept Brady to one of his least productive games all season. 


Both teams have had extra time to prep since their Thanksgiving Day wins and it should be a slugfest down in the pit between the Patriots O-line and Jets defensive front seven. A lot will come down to whether or not Sanchez can keep his mistakes to a minimum and given the way New England’s defense has progressed, we expect the home side to have the upper hand. You can get the current NFL odds for the Monday nighter and Week 14 games at Sportsbetting.com. 

We suggest you spend the extra money to buy this line down to three points and back the Patriots. 

Pick: Take the Patriots

NFL Betting: Cowboys at Colts Pick

The words “Indianapolis Colts” and “losing streak” go together like Irish Cream and lime juice, also known as a Cement Mixer. It’s the kind of prank you play on your best enemy and this week the Dallas Cowboys (3-8) are the intended target.

Indianapolis (6-5) has lost three in a row and Peyton Manning has thrown seven picks the past two weeks after throwing just two the first seven games this season. It’s given sportsbook little choice but to post a modest betting line for the perennial favourite and the Colts look like a strong play for anyone making NFL picks this weekend.

Line: Colts -5.5
Over/Under: 47.5
Dallas is 3-0 ATS since making the change from Wade Phillips to Jason Garrett and they could very well be 3-0 straight-up had Roy Williams been more aware of the situation vs. New Orleans. That turnover was a key to the game and Indy’s -8 turnover ratio in the past two weeks is a key to why the Colts are on the outside of the playoff bubble looking in.

Indy is having huge problems running the ball but gets RB Hart back this week and the tandem of Hart and Brown should be more effective. The Colts are 10-1 SU at home the past five seasons off a home game (6-5 ATS), and 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) when it was against a non-Conference foe. Their three opponents (and records that year) were the Redskins (5-11, 2006), Bucs (9-7, 2007) and Lions (0-16, 2008); quite a mix.

Indy won all three of those games by double-digits, covering the spread by an average 7.5 points per game. We look for Indianapolis to regroup and send a reminder to the rest of the league that they are not done yet.
Pick: Take the Colts

Line: Chiefs -9.5
Over/Under: 48.5
Kansas City has an important two-game road trip starting in San Diego up next. If this contest wasn’t divisional we would be hesitant laying this many points but HC Todd Haley has a personal interest vested after the way Broncos HC Josh McDaniels ran up the score in Week 10.

Denver is 2-11 SU at Arrowhead in December since 1980, covering the spread just three times (1994-95, 2009), and though they dismantled the Chiefs here last season, Kansas City was playing without WR Bowe (suspension) at the time. Look for the Chiefs offense to cause matchup issues and for Kansas City to win this one by double-digits.
Pick: Take the Chiefs

Check all the updated NFL odds

Saturday, December 4, 2010

Premier League Picks

This weekend sees the 16th round of games from England’s Premier League and we’re previewing the biggest matches.

Aston Villa vs. Liverpool
The sports betting public will be checking their sportsbook accounts as they gear up for a bet on the biggest game of the week, when Liverpool face Aston Villa at Anfield on Monday night. Both sides faced midweek games and Liverpool ensured their progress to the last 32 of the Europa League with a 1-1 draw against Steaua Bucharest. Villa were eliminated from the Carling Cup Quarter Finals against local rivals Birmingham City. 

Respectively, Liverpool have won their last four home games, while Villa are without a win five on the road and with both sides are not scoring many of late we expect this to be a low scoring game. 

Our money is on under 2.5 goals @ 1.73.

Manchester United vs. Blackpool
Saturday’s late game sees newly promoted Blackpool host new league leaders Manchester United at Bloomfield Road. Blackpool had the week off to reflect on conceding two goals late against Bolton to go from leading 2-0 to drawing 2-2. Meanwhile, Manchester United were unceremoniously dumped out of the Carling Cup 4-0 by bottom of the league West Ham to end their unbeaten run. After the first side defeated Blackburn 7-1 at the weekend and were then rested for the Carling Cup, they will be confident of winning this game, but Blackpool are an enigma and could easily surprise the odds here.

As a result of this, we’re backing goals over 2.5 goals. Online sportsbook have the odds @ 1.38.
Everton at Chelsea
With Manchester United playing the late game, Chelsea will be looking to go back to the top of the league, for a while at least, as they take on Everton at Stamford Bridge on Saturday afternoon. Neither of these sides are in good form and Chelsea have collected just one point from their last three Premier League games and four points from their last five matches in the league. Everton have just three draws to show from their last five league fixtures and they were beaten 4-1 at home by West Brom last week. Chelsea should win this one, but as both sides are struggling for goals, our bet for this match is under 2.5 goals to be scored in the game @ 2.00.

Good luck this weekend

SEC Championship Pick: Auburn vs. South Carolina

It’s round two for Auburn and South Carolina, as these two faced off earlier in the season. That meeting resulted in a come-from-behind 35-27 win for the Tigers. Now they meet in the SEC Championship game, the first time since 1994 Auburn has played in the Conference title matchup.

The Tigers come in fresh of that wildly entertaining victory last week vs. Alabama in which they overcame a 24-0 deficit. Falling behind early only to rally for wins has become somewhat of a trademark for Auburn this season, as they’ve done it in eight of their 12 wins.

Sportsbook have this game set with Auburn as a 5.5-point favourite and a Total of 61.5. The Tigers have a record of 7-1 ATS versus conference opponents this season.

While Auburn fans are excitedly booking tickets to Arizona to watch their team in the BCS Championship game on January 10th, the Gamecocks have a real shot at upending all those plans. Coach Spurrier’s team already proved they can hang with the Tigers in that 35-27 loss in late September. It was four South Carolina turnovers that snapped the defeat from the jaws of victory, as they let Auburn off the hook.

The Gamecock defense has been impressive all season, and while controlling Cam Newton and Co. Is a very difficult proposition, if they can get some help from the offense, they could be up for the task. First off, they need the offense to stay on the field for long drives and not the turn the ball over. In fact, if QB Stephen Garcia can put together a performance similar to the first three quarters of the first meeting (235 yards passing, 3TDs and no interceptions) they have a legitimate shot at winning this game.

We specifically say the first three quarters, because things got ugly for Garcia in the fourth quarter. Not only for him but for backup QB Connor Shaw. Why was backup QB Shaw playing? After two fumbles in the fourth, the Old Ball Coach blew his lid and pulled Garcia, sending his backup in. Shaw promptly threw two interceptions in the Auburn red zone, sealing the comeback win for the Tigers.

It’s hard to see another total fourth quarter meltdown. South Carolina showed they can move the ball, now they just need to hang on to it. And they are the team with the better defense in this one.

To us, that adds up to a play on the underdog Gamecocks and who knows, they could win this one straight up, creating BCS chaos.

Enjoy all the college football games. You can check the NCAA football odds

Friday, December 3, 2010

Serie A Picks

Serie A Picks: This weekend’s Serie A action runs from Friday night to Monday and Sportsbook is here with some great tips on the biggest games from the games being played.

Inter Milan vs. Lazio
The weekend begins on Friday night with the biggest game of the 10 being played as former league leaders Lazio entertain fifth placed Inter Milan the Stadio Olimpico in Rome. After losing top spot in the league at the start of November thanks to two straight defeats to Roma and Cesena, Lazio have bounced back with two wins and two draws in the following four games. They lie second in the table, just three points behind AC Milan, and they are four points ahead of Inter. Inter have won their last two matches, and even scored five goals in their last game, but they have not won away from home since the end of October. Despite this, they are improving again. We feel that this game will end as a draw. Sportsbooks have this line at 2.73, which we are backing.

Juventus vs. Catania
Sunday’s late game promises to be an excellent game as Catania host Juventus at the Stadio Angelo Massimino. Catania are eleventh in the table and have lost just one of their last eight games and are unbeaten in 2010 at home, a run of 21 games. Juventus are third in the table, just three points behind Lazio in second, but have drawn nine of their last fourteen games. However, they have won the other six matches. On the road they are unbeaten in nine games and they have only lost once away this season. Where are we betting though? Both sides have not scored many goals this season and we’re expecting few goals again.
Our cash is on under 2.5 goals @ 1.61.

Brescia vs. AC Milan
The final game we’re looking at sees AC Milan welcome newly promoted Brescia to the San Siro on Saturday evening. AC Milan are in impressive form and have won five and drawn two of their last seven games, and they have lost just once in their last sixteen home games. Brescia have claimed just three points from their last seven games, losing four and drawing three times. They sit outside the relegation places on goal difference alone and they have picked up just four points from a possible twenty-four available from eight away games this season.
We expect an easy AC Milan win. Online sportsbooks have them at 1.12.

La Liga Picks: Valencia vs. Real Madrid

La Liga Picks: Following Barcelona’s 5-0 thumping of Real Madrid last weekend, we’re back to business in Spain’s top division and we’re here to preview the biggest games.

Valencia vs. Real Madrid
For a second weekend running, Real Madrid are involved in the match of the weekend and they will be looking to claim all three points as they host Valencia at the Bernabeu on Saturday night. Their loss to Barcelona was their first defeat all season. Jose Mourinho has to be feeling that his side will collect all three points after winning each of the nine games played at home this season by an aggregate scoreline of 32-4. The last time they were beaten at home was in April and that loss came to Barcelona. They followed that up by beating Valencia in the next game. Will they do the same? We believe so.
We’re backing them to win. Sportsbook have them at odds of 1.23.

Villarreal vs. Sevilla
The weekend’s other big game sees third placed Villarreal take on the side in eighth, Sevilla, at the Camp El Madrigal stadium. Villarreal have a home record almost as impressive as Real Madrid as they have played ten matches at home in all competitions this season, winning nine and drawing one. Sevilla have lost both of their last two matches and they have lost two of their last three away games, conceding ten goals in those three matches. However, we are not expecting many goals to be scored in this game as both sides are tight defensively in general.
Our pick from this match is under 2.5 goals @ 1.88

Osasuna v Barcelona
The next game we’re looking at is the Osasuna v Barcelona game at the Estadio Reyno de Navarra where Barca will be looking to extend their winning run to seven games. Their last three games have seen them keep three clean sheets and score an amazing 16 goals with Real Madrid and Almeria falling in the league and Panathinaikos losing in the Champions League. Osasuna have lost three of their last four games, but all of those losses have come on the road. At home Osasuna are unbeaten this season with four wins and three draws to their name, but they have not faced a side as good or as in form as Barcelona this season and we see Barcelona winning this one easily and scoring a few goals. Online sportsbook have the line at 1.09.

Our recommendations are Barcelona to beat Osasuna @ 1.09 and also over 2.5 goals in the game @ 1.48.
Good luck this weekend

Thursday, December 2, 2010

NFL Betting: Early Week 13 Pick

Some say the league didn’t come down hard enough on Denver head Coach, Josh McDaniels for his part in the Spygate II scandal but after watching the St. Louis Rams pummel the last place Broncos Sunday on their own turf, is there any more discipline required?

McDaniels is on the hot seat in Denver and after the success Jason Garrett (3-0 ATS) and Leslie Frazier (1-0 ATS) have experienced since taking over the head coaching jobs in Dallas and Minnesota, a change of scenery in the Rockies could be eminent.

Denver lost a close one to the Jets in Week 6 that they had every right to win. Since then, the only two highlights for the Broncos have been a 35-point scoring spree in the first-half against the Chiefs and 20 fourth quarter points against the Rams in Week 12.

Online sportsbook set the betting odds for Denver and Kansas City this week at Chiefs (-7) but that line did not last through Arizona’s first fumble in the Monday Night Football game vs. San Francisco.

Sportsbetting.com currently lists the Chiefs (-9) and picks on Kansas City at home this season have produced a 4-1 ATS record – that’s a profit of plus-2.9 units.

Kansas City’s veteran coaches will have learned from their mistakes of the last meeting but in this short turn-around situation between division rivals we predict a much lower scoring game than the 49-29 final in Week 10.
Pick: Take the Under


Sure, it’s a long way from now but file this for when sportsbooks begin to offer betting futures on the NFL Draft.

Patriots' tight end Aaron Hernandez, the youngest player in the NFL, was drafted in the fourth round. As part of the new ‘No prima donna’ offense, the Patriots went after young TEs in the draft that they could turn into playmakers with an offensive package that reduces personnel changes.

Early draft prediction for 2011: TEs will be in high demand. It’s a copycat league and when sub-.500 teams see the kind of success Belichick has had they will be lining up to give it a shot next year.

Bet the "Over" 2.5 for ‘Number of TEs drafted first round.

Cleveland’s Peyton Hillis is the first Browns running back with 10 rush TDs since Kevin Mack in 1986. While this year’s edition will not be making an appearance in the AFC Championship game in January, they are a very attractive underdog bet in Week 13.

Miami allowed a whopping 128 rushing yards per game in its four games prior to the win at Oakland. The Dolphins are also just 1-4 SU at home this year.
Pick: Take the Browns

NBA Betting: Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Basketball betting storylines for the first month of the season have led to Thursday night’s matchup between the Miami Heat (-4.5) and Cleveland Cavaliers.

Online Sportsbook were projecting the Heat as nine-point favorites for this contest when the season began (with NBA Prospective lines), but given Miami’s current seven-game streak of losses against the spread (ATS), it’s a wonder they’re even favored at all.

Cleveland has posted a 4-4 ATS record the past while but they were underdogs in 7-of-8. The Cavs have an illustrious 5-0 record straight-up (SU) and ATS vs. Miami since March of 2009, but LeBron James was Cleveland’s leading scorer in four out of five games.

Ah yes, King James. Where would the Cleveland franchise be without their deserting leader? James averaged more than 28 points per game the past five years with Cleveland and so far this year with the Heat is netting just 23.7 points per contest.

James was good for 31.6 points in the past five meetings between these teams and this season through 17 games the King has crowned 32-plus points only three times.

Sportsbooks are giving bettors a chance to bet on nearly every aspect of this game, offering betting prop and Over/Under odds for how many points LeBron will score, does Chris Bosh remain an afterthought (O/U 19 points) and an exotic prop on whether or not James will do his patented powder move that became famous during his past seven seasons.

The routine involves filling his hands with white powdered rosin and tossing it above his head just before tip-off, creating a dust cloud that has become as much his signature as any powerful dunk.

All eyes in the basketball betting world will be on Cleveland Thursday night and the early public betting percentages show more than 70-percent of NBA picks lay with the favorite covering the spread.

As the betting action heats up and the shot clock to tip-off counts down, expect more betting options to come available.

Cavs owner Dan Gilbert has thrown gas on the fire, hiring a law firm to investigate whether the Heat violated NBA rules in their recruitment of LeBron James.

It has all the makings of a mid-week drama. Just what the league was hoping for.

Enjoy the game!

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

49ers vs Cardinals: Monday Night Football Picks

49ers vs Cardinals: The Arizona Cardinals were in Kansas City last week while the San Francisco 49ers endured their first home shutout since 1977 at the hands of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

After Sunday’s results the NFC West race has been transformed into a three-team race. The competitors are Seattle (5-6), St. Louis (5-6), and the winner of tonight’s game.

Sportsbook have the number on this one set as the 49ers -1 and the Total is 40.

The fantasy ride for quarterback Troy Smith could be short-lived but this week he gets one more chance. Coach Singletary said he wouldn’t hesitate to bench QB Smith if he’s playing a miserable game and Alex Smith is second on the depth chart.

TE Vernon Davis, who left the game against Tampa Bay with an ankle injury, should be fine but San Francisco needs to hitch its wagon to Frank Gore.

Gore (foot) is coming off his worst game of the season against Tampa Bay and it could have partly been due to his injury, but this week he is ready to go. Arizona’s front seven is beat up right now and Gore could be the key to opening up room for the passing game.

Arizona HC Whisenhunt is under pressure to produce on offense and critics are starting to question why the team won’t bring in an offensive co-ordinator. The Cardinals will go with Derek Anderson at QB but look for Whisenhunt to open the playbook and try to get WR Fitzgerald involved early.

Arizona has played 7 overs and 2 unders in its past nine games overall.

Joe Public bettors made huge gains in Week 11 and after the two big favs on Thanksgiving cashed tickets it looked like oddsmakers were getting ready for another bath. Sports betting can be an evil mistress, though, and the heaviest percentage bets for Sunday had a rough day.

Favorites went 4-7 ATS and San Francisco is getting the public nod for tonight.

- The 49ers have a 17-5 ATS record in their past 22 Monday Night game including a cover earlier this year vs. New Orleans.

Sportsbetting.com manager Brian Taylor stated that as of late Sunday evening they had 60% of the volume on San Francisco and 57% on the Over.

The winner of tonight’s game will still have a hill to climb if they hope to stay alive in the battle for the playoffs. The loser can start plotting a draft strategy and selecting candidates for the soon to be vacant head coaching post.

We have a hard time building an argument to support either side but project that the game will see enough scoring to go Over the total.
Pick: Take the Over