Thursday, December 2, 2010

NFL Betting: Early Week 13 Pick

Some say the league didn’t come down hard enough on Denver head Coach, Josh McDaniels for his part in the Spygate II scandal but after watching the St. Louis Rams pummel the last place Broncos Sunday on their own turf, is there any more discipline required?

McDaniels is on the hot seat in Denver and after the success Jason Garrett (3-0 ATS) and Leslie Frazier (1-0 ATS) have experienced since taking over the head coaching jobs in Dallas and Minnesota, a change of scenery in the Rockies could be eminent.

Denver lost a close one to the Jets in Week 6 that they had every right to win. Since then, the only two highlights for the Broncos have been a 35-point scoring spree in the first-half against the Chiefs and 20 fourth quarter points against the Rams in Week 12.

Online sportsbook set the betting odds for Denver and Kansas City this week at Chiefs (-7) but that line did not last through Arizona’s first fumble in the Monday Night Football game vs. San Francisco.

Sportsbetting.com currently lists the Chiefs (-9) and picks on Kansas City at home this season have produced a 4-1 ATS record – that’s a profit of plus-2.9 units.

Kansas City’s veteran coaches will have learned from their mistakes of the last meeting but in this short turn-around situation between division rivals we predict a much lower scoring game than the 49-29 final in Week 10.
Pick: Take the Under

NFL DRAFT PROP

Sure, it’s a long way from now but file this for when sportsbooks begin to offer betting futures on the NFL Draft.

Patriots' tight end Aaron Hernandez, the youngest player in the NFL, was drafted in the fourth round. As part of the new ‘No prima donna’ offense, the Patriots went after young TEs in the draft that they could turn into playmakers with an offensive package that reduces personnel changes.

Early draft prediction for 2011: TEs will be in high demand. It’s a copycat league and when sub-.500 teams see the kind of success Belichick has had they will be lining up to give it a shot next year.

Bet the "Over" 2.5 for ‘Number of TEs drafted first round.

BROWNS FLASHBACK
Cleveland’s Peyton Hillis is the first Browns running back with 10 rush TDs since Kevin Mack in 1986. While this year’s edition will not be making an appearance in the AFC Championship game in January, they are a very attractive underdog bet in Week 13.

Miami allowed a whopping 128 rushing yards per game in its four games prior to the win at Oakland. The Dolphins are also just 1-4 SU at home this year.
Pick: Take the Browns

NBA Betting: Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Basketball betting storylines for the first month of the season have led to Thursday night’s matchup between the Miami Heat (-4.5) and Cleveland Cavaliers.

Online Sportsbook were projecting the Heat as nine-point favorites for this contest when the season began (with NBA Prospective lines), but given Miami’s current seven-game streak of losses against the spread (ATS), it’s a wonder they’re even favored at all.

Cleveland has posted a 4-4 ATS record the past while but they were underdogs in 7-of-8. The Cavs have an illustrious 5-0 record straight-up (SU) and ATS vs. Miami since March of 2009, but LeBron James was Cleveland’s leading scorer in four out of five games.

Ah yes, King James. Where would the Cleveland franchise be without their deserting leader? James averaged more than 28 points per game the past five years with Cleveland and so far this year with the Heat is netting just 23.7 points per contest.

James was good for 31.6 points in the past five meetings between these teams and this season through 17 games the King has crowned 32-plus points only three times.

Sportsbooks are giving bettors a chance to bet on nearly every aspect of this game, offering betting prop and Over/Under odds for how many points LeBron will score, does Chris Bosh remain an afterthought (O/U 19 points) and an exotic prop on whether or not James will do his patented powder move that became famous during his past seven seasons.

The routine involves filling his hands with white powdered rosin and tossing it above his head just before tip-off, creating a dust cloud that has become as much his signature as any powerful dunk.

All eyes in the basketball betting world will be on Cleveland Thursday night and the early public betting percentages show more than 70-percent of NBA picks lay with the favorite covering the spread.

As the betting action heats up and the shot clock to tip-off counts down, expect more betting options to come available.

Cavs owner Dan Gilbert has thrown gas on the fire, hiring a law firm to investigate whether the Heat violated NBA rules in their recruitment of LeBron James.

It has all the makings of a mid-week drama. Just what the league was hoping for.

Enjoy the game!