Monday, November 29, 2010

NFL Week 12 Picks: Big Games for Week 12

NFL Week 12 Picks: It doesn’t matter if NFL players actually watch any of the action unfold during Thursday’s Thanksgiving triple-header; they know the results by Friday morning.

How it affects the players on Atlanta to see Drew Brees pass for more than 350 yards on the road against Dallas? Another mystery, but Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 285-plus in five of his past six outings so the Falcons defensive backs better be ready!

GREEN BAY AT ATLANTA

Line: Falcons -2
Over/Under: 47.5
The Packers sandwiched their bye week with impressive wins against Dallas and Minnesota, leaving a trail of coaching casualties in their wake. The Falcons have had a few extra days after beating Baltimore on Thursday (Week 11) and they’ll face a Packers team that’s allowed only one TD on 31 drives in their last three games.

Atlanta is 3-2 ATS at home this year and was 5-1 ATS when laying points in 2009. QB Ryan’s (18-1 SU) strong run of straight-up home wins gets a ton of publicity but it’s well deserved; the guy knows how to get the job done.

Online sportsbook opened the line for this game at Falcons -2 and public betting percentages show a 70-30 split of ATS betting action, Green Bay getting the majority.

The Falcons won their final four games of the season ATS last year and are 11-2 SU in their past 13 overall. In what could be a preview for the NFC Conference Final we like the betting value on the home favorite.
Pick: Take the Falcons

In another one of the more popular games for online betting this week, probably more because of the storylines leading up to it than then actually matchup itself, Donovan McNabb and Brett Favre square-off for the final time at FedEx Field.
   
MINNESOTA AT WASHINGTON
Line: Redskins -1.5
Over/Under: 43
After compiling a 40-37 straight-up record in five seasons with Minnesota, Brad Childress was fired this week after the Vikings were blown out by division rival Green Bay.

Leslie Frazier has become the second interim coach named in the past two weeks and Minnesota can only hope to enjoy the same success the Dallas Cowboys have enjoyed under interim coach Jason Garrett.

It was fairly obvious how big the rift between Childress-Favre had become and we know who will be calling the shots vs. Washington. Look for an up-tempo offense utilizing RB Peterson and all of the WRs to spread out the field.

On defense, the Vikings front seven will keep QB McNabb guessing. If the secondary can take something positive out of last week’s disaster they have a chance for redemption against the league’s 27th rated passing game (76.1).
Pick: Take the Vikings

Saturday, November 27, 2010

La Liga Betting – Matchday 13

There may be a full round of action in La Liga this weekend, but there is only one game being talked about – El Clásico at the Nou Camp on Monday night as Barcelona host their biggest rivals Real Madrid. Where is the betting value on this one? Let’s look at the biggest La Liga games.

Real Madrid vs. Barcelona
Sportsbooks, fans and bettors are all looking forward to this one on Monday night, as Barcelona welcome their biggest domestic rivals to the Nou Camp as they look to record their 5th successive El Clásico win over the side from the capital. Will they be able to do so, as Real Madrid under Jose Mourinho are a different, and more difficult to defeat, side than in recent years.

Both sides go into this crucial encounter having won their last five matches in all competitions, and Real Madrid head the Catalan side in the league by just a single point thanks to their ten wins and two draws in the league this season compared to Barca’s ten wins, one draw and one loss. They have already streaked away from the rest of the league and are seven points ahead of third placed Villarreal in a league of their own. Barca have proved their vulnerability at home this season with their loss to Hercules early in the season and while they have improved they do not look as consistent as Real Madrid do this season.

Barca have definitely improved in recent times and, while they will be fired up for this game, Jose Mourinho will want to turn around Real’s lack of victories in this fixture. And we feel he will claim all three points in this match by setting out a solid defensive side and keep the game low scoring and take all three points.

Pick: Looking at the current La Liga odds at online sportsbook, we’re backing both a Real Madrid win @ 3.01 and under 2.5 goals in this match @ 2.15.

Villarreal vs. Real Zaragoza
Third placed Villarreal know that they will be able to close the gap to one, if not both, of the sides at the top of the table this weekend with a win and they face Real Zaragoza this weekend in their match. Zaragoza have won just one game at home this season and sit bottom of the table having conceded 10 goals in their last 5 home games. Villarreal have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five away games and have scored nine goals in those matches and we feel that they are likely to win this game.

Pick: However, we feel the best value for this match is on the goals market and we’re backing over 2.5 goals @ 1.70.

College Football Picks

Rivalry weekend in the NCAA serves up some of the best matchups of the year and some strong betting opportunities. Let’s take a look at a couple of the big games and look at a couple of picks.

LSU vs. Arkansas
While they won’t play for a national championship, a win over #12-ranked Arkansas puts Les Miles and LSU in a great spot for a BCS bowl game...and a loss means they can wave bye bye to the BCS. This big SEC battle on Saturday has already grabbed a lot of attention from bettors during the week, but by kick-off, it will be one of the most wagered on college games of the weekend.

In speaking with Brian Taylor, manager at Sportsbetting.com, he stated that “LSU is currently an underdog of more than a field goal at +3.5, but we’re starting to see more action come in on them. As of Friday evening, we have 54% of all the action on this game on the Tigers”.

Sportsbooks have the total set at 54.5 and so far, in speaking with several sportsbook managers, it appears have yet to really make up their mind on what to do with it. Most are reporting pretty balanced early action, with an overall small lean to the high side.

This is going to be a very difficult challenge for LSU, as they play away from home vs. a Top 12 team that has some star power and big motivation. The Razorbacks are looking for a double-digit winning season, as they sit at 9-2 heading in.

But we like the dog in this one. We think getting more than a field goal, this Tiger team has a great shot at the straight up win and feel they have a few matchup advantages that will be key.
Pick: We’re taking LSU +3.5.

Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma
Bedlam is will be in this one. Known as the “Bedlam” series, these two big time rivals make acquaintance in a familiar...and not so familiar way in 2010. Familiar as Oklahoma State and Oklahoma have clashed in their season finales none of the last 11 seasons. Unfamiliar because this year the Cowboys from Oklahoma State have something more to play for than just bragging rights and respect.

While the Sooners are used to having a conference title already in the bag or about to be won (which is true this year), that’s usually not the case for Oklahoma State. But it is this year, as the Cowboys have a share of the Big 12 South title at the very least, and with a victory on Saturday will move on to the Conference Championship game.

Sportsbook currently have this line set at -2.5 for the Cowboys. Oklahoma State are a high-scoring team (ranked third in the country) and the Sooners can rack up the points as well, so we have a high Total on this one of 67

Note that the Cowboys are an impressive 9-2 against the spread this year, while the Sooners are a pedestrian 6-5 ATS.

Early betting action, according to sportsbooks, has about 60% of the action on the Cowboys compared to 40% on the Sooners.

We like the small favourite in this one. The Cowboys have been beat up for a long time by the Sooners, but the talent-gap has closed and now Oklahoma State is in a great position to finally step up and beat the bully on the block.
Pick: Our play is on the Cowboys.

Premier League Picks: Match Day 15

Premier League Picks: After the excitement of the midweek Champions League football we’re back to the domestic action again this weekend and we’re looking at the 15th round of games from England’s Premier League, giving out our top picks.

Liverpool vs. Tottenham
Sportsbook will see a ton of action on the biggest game of the weekend happens on Sunday evening as Tottenham Hotspur host Liverpool at White Hart Lane. Spurs are on a run of four games unbeaten having claimed all drawn with Sunderland and then claimed all three points against Blackburn and Arsenal in the league before dispatching Werder Bremen 3-0 in the Champions League to book their place in the last sixteen of the tournament. Liverpool are in better form than earlier in the season and they now sit 9th in the table, however their away form is poor and they have lost four of seven games on the road this season. With Spurs playing in midweek and Liverpool poor on the road, we see this one not being as action packed as expected and we’re backing there won’t be much scoring in this one.
The play is on the under 2.5 goals market @ 1.72.

Chelsea vs. Newcastle United

The only other game being played on Sunday is Newcastle United v Chelsea at St. James Park. Newcastle are an odd side this season and have had some poor results as well as some excellent ones. High points have seen them beat Chelsea in the Carling Cup and Arsenal, Aston Villa and local rivals Sunderland in the league, but these have been countered by losses to Blackpool, Stoke and they are currently without a league win in three games following a 5-1 loss to Bolton. Chelsea have lost three of four in the Premier League, but did beat MSK Žilina in the Champions League this week to get back to winning ways. However, they are still vulnerable to conceding goals.
Because of that we’re backing the over 2.5 goals market in this one @ 1.81.

Aston Villa vs. Arsenal
The final game we’re looking at is the Aston Villa v Arsenal game on Saturday lunchtime at Villa Park. Villa are not in good form and they have won just one of their last eight league games, and that came against a second string Blackpool side, but at home they are unbeaten all season with three wins and four draws to their name and will be confident of getting something against Arsenal. Arsenal are also not in good form and have lost four of their last six in both Premier and Champions Leagues. However, in the Premier League this season, they have lost only to Chelsea and have won their last three games conceding just a single goal, and we’re backing them to win again this weekend. You can check all the updated Premier League odds.
Our money is on an Arsenal win @ 1.92.

Serie A Betting: Matchday 14

Serie A Betting: ll three of Italy’s representatives in the Champions League this week were victorious, but can they carry that form over into the weekend’s league action? Let’s look at the current Sportsbook odds and see if we can find some value.

Milan vs. Sampdoria
After their 2-0 win in France in midweek, league leaders travel to Sampdoria this weekend looking to claim another three points, but will they be able to do so? Sampdoria are continuing their impressive home form from last season as they have won four, drawn four and lost just a single game in front of their own fans this season. However, their fans will be baying for a goal this weekend as the last three of Sampdoria’s home games have finished 0-0. Milan are in excellent form and have won all of their last five matches and have kept clean sheets in the last three. They will be very confident of extending their league lead this weekend, but Sampdoria are no pushovers at home and we will feel that both sides will walk away with a point. Back the draw @ 2.82 at (those odds are courtesy Sportsbetting.com).

Parma vs. Inter Milan
In action early on Sunday morning are Inter Milan and they host Parma at the San Siro. Inter have being have a rough time of late and prior to their 1-0 win over FC Twente in the Champions League on Wednesday they had gone five games without victory. Will that win over the Dutch side boost their confidence and see them get something from this game? Parma are draw specialists this season and have drawn almost 50% of their 13 games played so far but they are undefeated in their last three games with two wins and a draw to their name. They will feel that with Inter’s problems they can get something, and so do we but we feel this game could end in any of the three possible results. But 8 of the last 10 of Inter’s league games and all of the last 11 of Parma’s league matches have had under 2.5 goals, so that is where our money is. This bet is available @ 1.56.

Roma vs. Palermo
The final Serie A game of the weekend see Palermo host Roma on Sunday evening at the Stadio Renzo Barbera. After losing four games in a row recently Palermo have turned things around and have taken all three points in three of their last four matches and now sit in the top half of the table in 7th place. However, Roma are in exceptional form following their poor start to the season and are unbeaten in 8 games and are up to 5th in the league. We have a feeling that this game could end as a draw, but we’re not confident on this, so as both sides are scoring plenty of late and conceding a few goals we’re backing over 2.5 goals in this fixture @ 1.82.

Good luck this weekend.