Friday, October 1, 2010

Hot Lines for Week 4

Donovan McNabb’s much anticipated return to Philadelphia this week has instantly made the Redskins-Eagles one of the more popular games for early-week bettors.

Online sportsbook opened the line for this contest at Eagles -6.5, but the bait for Redskins backers, including those who were paying the extra juice to ‘buy the hook’ up to seven was too tempting. Early public money was coming in at 65-percent according to odds trackers but since the line dropped to -6 the action has started to even out.

Washington has a 7-3-1 record against the spread (ATS) in its last 11 meetings with the Philadelphia.

PUBLIC FAVORITES

Houston (90-percent), San Diego (86-percent) and New Orleans (82-percent) are three of the most popular bets on the board this week but huge public favorites have not proven to be a wise investment through the first three weeks of the season.

Huge fan favorite teams attracting the most money at the ticket windows are hitting at a dismal 29-percent (4-10 ATS).

While the readings from early in the week are likely to change since the majority of bettors don’t start buying until the weekend, it’s a worthwhile practice finding a consistent source of information that lets you watch where the money is going through the week.

WEARY TRAVELLERS

Seattle (-1), Denver and San Francisco will all be travelling decent distances this weekend for road games at St. Louis, Tennessee (-6.5) and Atlanta (-7) respectively.

While the Broncos will only wind their watches one hour to the Central time zone and the Seahawks only click two zones ahead, San Francisco is falling into the classic ‘Early body clock’ trap synonymous with West Coast teams playing in the Eastern time zone.

The 49ers were 0-5 straight-up in 2009 the first five times they traveled to play Eastern/Central time zone opponents, finally breaking the slump in Week 17 at St. Louis. San Francisco is also just 1-8 SU in their past nine road games overall and if last week’s game in Kansas City was any indicator, 2010 looks like another good spot to fade these weary travellers.

Another thing to keep in mind is that when getting +7 points or more, the 49ers were 2-1 ATS in 2009.

There’s a look at a few games this weekend. Best of luck with your bets.

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