Monday, December 6, 2010

NFL Betting: Cowboys at Colts Pick

The words “Indianapolis Colts” and “losing streak” go together like Irish Cream and lime juice, also known as a Cement Mixer. It’s the kind of prank you play on your best enemy and this week the Dallas Cowboys (3-8) are the intended target.

Indianapolis (6-5) has lost three in a row and Peyton Manning has thrown seven picks the past two weeks after throwing just two the first seven games this season. It’s given sportsbook little choice but to post a modest betting line for the perennial favourite and the Colts look like a strong play for anyone making NFL picks this weekend.

DALLAS AT INDIANAPOLIS
Line: Colts -5.5
Over/Under: 47.5
Dallas is 3-0 ATS since making the change from Wade Phillips to Jason Garrett and they could very well be 3-0 straight-up had Roy Williams been more aware of the situation vs. New Orleans. That turnover was a key to the game and Indy’s -8 turnover ratio in the past two weeks is a key to why the Colts are on the outside of the playoff bubble looking in.

Indy is having huge problems running the ball but gets RB Hart back this week and the tandem of Hart and Brown should be more effective. The Colts are 10-1 SU at home the past five seasons off a home game (6-5 ATS), and 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) when it was against a non-Conference foe. Their three opponents (and records that year) were the Redskins (5-11, 2006), Bucs (9-7, 2007) and Lions (0-16, 2008); quite a mix.

Indy won all three of those games by double-digits, covering the spread by an average 7.5 points per game. We look for Indianapolis to regroup and send a reminder to the rest of the league that they are not done yet.
Pick: Take the Colts

DENVER AT KANSAS CITY
Line: Chiefs -9.5
Over/Under: 48.5
Kansas City has an important two-game road trip starting in San Diego up next. If this contest wasn’t divisional we would be hesitant laying this many points but HC Todd Haley has a personal interest vested after the way Broncos HC Josh McDaniels ran up the score in Week 10.

Denver is 2-11 SU at Arrowhead in December since 1980, covering the spread just three times (1994-95, 2009), and though they dismantled the Chiefs here last season, Kansas City was playing without WR Bowe (suspension) at the time. Look for the Chiefs offense to cause matchup issues and for Kansas City to win this one by double-digits.
Pick: Take the Chiefs

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